Bluffton, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXUS62 KCHS 061004
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
604 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail today. A cold front will push across
the area Monday night into Tuesday as Tropical Storm Milton
strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. The center of Milton is
forecast to track east across Florida on Wednesday as a
hurricane, tracking over the western Atlantic Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure should build across the region by
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A solid ribbon of light to moderate rain continues to stream
into McIntosh County. Near term guidance suggests this will
linger for a few more hours. Pops were raised to 80% for this
area with the sunrise update.

Today: The synoptic pattern has not changed much over the past
24 hours with the region positioned beneath a large mid-level
weakness along the northern flanks of weak subtropical ridging
centered over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, broad, elongated 1030 mb high pressure centered over
Newfoundland, Canada, continues to extend south along the
eastern U.S. with its southern flanks expanding across the Deep
South and the Southeast States.

A weak coastal trough noted offshore near the west wall of the
Gulf Stream has shown signs of washing out over the last day or
so, but remains defined enough to support a weak convergence
field along the western side of the trough axis. This is helping
to support scattered to numerous showers over the Georgia
coastal waters. This pattern will change little this morning
with the best focus for showers moving onshore holding along the
middle Georgia coast south into northeastern Florida. Rain
chances will be maximized in this area this morning with pops
ranging from 20-60% south of a Glennville to Ossabaw Island,
highest across Darien and Sapelo Island. Given the lack of
synoptic forcing, the risk for tstms is likely too low to
justify a mention today, despite some weak surface-based
instability noted. Rain chances across coastal Georgia will
diminish as the afternoon progresses in response high pressure
nosing even farther to the south. Dry weather will persist
elsewhere across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia
with near zero pops north of I-16 corridor. Highs today will
range from the lower-mid 80s inland with upper 70s/near 80 at
the beaches and far south around Darien where rainfall will tend
to limit temperatures a bit.

Tonight: High pressure will build farther to the south tonight
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A few showers
could linger across McIntosh County during the early evening,
but this activity will wane quickly after sunset. The coastal
trough offshore will have mostly washed out by tonight, becoming
mostly damped by the expanding northeast flow induced by high
pressure building to the south. Dry conditions will dominate
overnight as high clouds thin and push offshore. Lows will range
from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.
A few upper 50s could occur, mainly over the Francis Marion
National Forest and areas north of Lake Moultrie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad troughing will prevail Monday in the upper levels,
extending from just east of the Great Lakes down into the Mid-
Atlantic region. At the surface high pressure will prevail
across the local forecast area on Monday, with a cold front
forecast to push through the region Tuesday/Tuesday night. In
the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to develop
into a hurricane early in the week and track eastward towards
the Florida Peninsula. With the large scale circulation from
Milton the aforementioned cold front could become stalled in the
vicinity of the forecast area. Despite FROPA, dry conditions
have been maintained through the short term period. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s on Monday and
Tuesday, with mid 70s on Wednesday post-FROPA. Low temperatures
Monday and Tuesday nights will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moisture will begin to lift northward into the forecast area
Wednesday night, with PWATs increasing to near 2 inches across
SE GA. Many forecast details in the long term are dependent on
the placement, timing, and strength of Hurricane Milton. The
latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the
center of Milton tracking across central Florida
Wednesday/Wednesday night and pushing into the western Atlantic
on Thursday. The current forecast features slight chance to
chance PoPs Wednesday night into Thursday. However, a slight
shift northward would be cause for an increase in PoPs.
Similarly, a shift southward would decrease PoPs. These details
will need to be ironed out as more guidance comes in and the
event comes closer. Regardless of the exact positioning of
Milton, cloudy conditions are expected as well as gusty NE
winds, especially near the coast. High temperatures should be
limited to the mid to upper 70s.

Milton is forecast to exit the region Thursday, with conditions
rapidly improving on Friday and into the weekend as high
pressure builds into the region. Dry conditions will prevail,
with temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 07/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible
mid-week as Hurricane Milton crosses the Florida Peninsula and
emerges off the SE U.S. coast. Additionally, periods of gusty NE
winds will be possible mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The pressure gradient between the coastal trough offshore
and high pressure to the north will gradually waned today as the
coastal trough starts to become increasingly overwhelmed by the
broadening field of northeast winds. Winds will average 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt for much of the day with seas building 3-5
ft within 20 NM and 5-6 ft over the Georgia waters from 20-60 NM
offshore where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Tonight: Northeast winds will continue to diminish overnight as
high pressure builds south and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Speeds will average 10 kt from South Santee-Edisto
Beach out 20 NM, 10-15 kt from Edisto Beach to Altamaha Sound
out 20 NM and as high as 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over the
Georgia waters from 20-60 NM offshore. Seas 3-5 ft will persist
within 20 NM and 5-6 ft over the Georgia waters from 20-60 NM
where, again, a Small Craft Advisory continues.

Monday and Tuesday: High pressure will prevail across the
marine waters on Monday with a cold front progged to approach
the waters on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Tropical Storm Milton is
forecast to develop into a hurricane as it treks eastward across
the Gulf of Mexico. The large circulation around Milton will
likely cause the approaching cold front to stall in the vicinity
of the forecast area. Northeast winds will begin to surge into
Tuesday as the pressure gradient becomes pinched between the
cold front and the circulation around Milton. NE winds will
increase to around 15 to 20 knots Tuesday, with gusts around 25
knots. Seas are forecast to build to 3 to 4 ft across the
nearshore waters, with 5 to 6 ft across the 20 to 60 nm offshore
GA waters. By Tuesday, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed for all marine zones.

Wednesday and Thursday: Conditions across the marine zones will
deteriorate quickly with tropical storm conditions possible.
The forecast will be largely dominated by the timing, placement,
and strength of Hurricane Milton. However, gusty NE winds are
likely across the marine waters, possibly gusting to around 50
knots across the GA waters with it`s closest passage to the
coast. Seas are forecast to build to 15 to 20 feet in the 20 to
60 nm offshore GA waters.

Friday: Conditions should begin to improve on Friday as
Hurricane Milton progresses further into the Atlantic and away
from the east coast. Gusty NE winds around 25 knots will still
be common, and while seas will begin to diminish they are still
forecast to be 5 to 7 ft along the nearshore waters and 8 to 10
ft across the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters.

Rip Currents: Morning buoy reports show a 2 ft underlying
easterly swell of 15-17 seconds prevailing across the waters.
This swell energy was generated by distant Hurricane Kirk
several days ago and will remain in place through the day. Local
rip current calculations support a solid high rip current risk
across the Georgia beaches, but is teetering right at the
moderate/high risk thresholds across the South Carolina beaches.
Given this swell is hurricane induced, a more aggressive approach
is typically favored and is supported by previous hurricane
swell events over the past several years. For this reason, a
high rip current risk is being highlighted for all beaches into
this evening. Conditions supporting a high risk will persist
into Monday.

High Surf: The risk for high surf with breaking waves of 5 ft
or higher along with significant beach erosion will increase
later this week as Milton emerges off the Florida East Coast. A
High Surf Advisory could be needed for the beaches by mid-week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels in the Charleston Harbor are expected to peak right
around 7.0 ft MLLW for the late morning high tide. A Coastal
Flood Advisory may be needed later this morning.

Coastal flooding is also possible during high tides from
Tuesday through Thursday morning along the entire coast. Coastal
flooding appears most likely as Milton tracks across FL to the
western Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

&&

$$